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Are We
Screwed?

AI is replacing jobs. Can you survive as an investor in AI-run companies in an AI-driven economy?

↓ Find out below

AI Scenario

The Problem

AI is replacing human labor. Not in some distant future — now. Information workers are first: coders, analysts, writers, customer service, legal research, accounting. The jobs that run on knowledge and language are exactly what large language models turn out to be good at.

This isn't a temporary disruption. Unlike previous automation waves that replaced physical tasks and created new cognitive ones, AI targets cognitive work directly. When the tool can think, write, and reason, the "just learn to code" escape hatch closes.

Do Nothing: Demand Collapse

If displaced workers simply lose their income, consumer spending collapses. Displaced workers cut nearly all their spending. Remove the wages, remove the customers. Companies automate their way to record efficiency — then watch their revenue crater because nobody can afford to buy anything.

This is the death spiral: fewer jobs → less spending → less revenue → more cuts → fewer jobs. Even the most profitable AI-powered company can't survive selling to an economy where 80% of purchasing power has evaporated.

Why Not UBI?

The obvious answer is Universal Basic Income — government pays everyone a living wage. But UBI concentrates enormous financial power in whoever controls the government. Your income becomes a political lever.

When governments control income, the temptation to weaponize it follows. China's social credit system docks benefits for dissent. Canada froze bank accounts of trucker protest donors in 2022. Authoritarian regimes routinely cut pensions and benefits to political opponents. UBI at scale would hand that same lever to whoever holds power — your entire livelihood tied to one institution's continued goodwill.

The Investor Model: Own the Machines

There's a third option: if AI replaces your labor, own the AI. Not the technology itself, but the companies deploying it. When a corporation replaces workers with AI, its profits explode. Those profits flow to shareholders as dividends and rising share prices.

The investor model is simple: displaced workers shift from earning wages to earning returns on a portfolio of AI-powered companies. No government gatekeeper. No political litmus test. Your income comes from owning a piece of the economy, not from a bureaucrat's approval.

The critical question is: can you accumulate enough before displacement hits? This model calculates the full picture — labor displacement, AI costs, demand feedback loops, supply chain effects, and what it means for corporate profits and shareholder returns. Let's walk through it with Amazon as an example.

The Amazon Example

Amazon has 1,556,000 employees, $185.0B in labor costs, and $716.9B in revenue. What happens when AI starts replacing that workforce?

arewescrewed.ai — a gloomy economic model, not financial advice.

Data Sources

  • Company financials: SEC EDGAR XBRL API — FY2024/2025 10-K filings for all 10 portfolio companies (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, JPM, JNJ, PG, XOM)
  • Amazon headcount: Amazon Annual Reports, SEC 10-K filings "Employees" section (not available in structured XBRL data)
  • Labor cost estimates: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC) 2024 data, ~1.4x benefits multiplier
  • Wage share of spending: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey — wages represent ~60% of consumer spending
  • Safe withdrawal rate: Bengen, W. (1994) & Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz, 1998) — 4% annual withdrawal rate from a diversified portfolio
  • Share prices: Approximate market prices as of early 2026. Capital gains model assumes constant P/E ratio (price tracks earnings growth).

Methodology Notes

  • S-curve adoption: Smoothstep function t²(3-2t) models technology adoption — slow start, rapid middle, plateau.
  • AI cost decline: Modeled as exponential annual decline, analogous to Moore's Law for compute costs.
  • Demand feedback: Consumer spending is modeled as a function of wage income + investment income. Without investor adoption, demand collapses to an essentials floor.
  • Sector displacement: Sector-specific automation rates are estimates based on current AI capabilities and industry analysis. Scaled by scenario aggressiveness.
  • AI displacement timelines are speculative. This model explores possibilities, not predictions.
This is a work in progress — we're actively exploring the model and challenging assumptions. Found an issue or have a better assumption? Open an issue on GitHub.

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